St. Francis NY

Conference:	NEC
Expected RPI:	276.0
Current RPI:	276
Expected SOS:	304
Current SOS:	304
Current Record:	11-18
Expected Record:	11-18
Current Conf Record:	10-9
Expected Conf Record:	10-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-11
Current OOC Record:	1-9
Expected OOC Record:	1-9
Expected OOC RPI:	345
Expected OOC SOS:	280

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
11-18	276.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for St. Francis NY.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Duquesne (259.0)	A10	A	80-70	L	0%
11-15	Manhattan (228.0)	MAAC	A	80-79	L	0%
11-19	Brown (298.0)	Ivy	H	77-74	W	100%
11-24	Navy (200.0)	Pat	N	85-76	L	0%
11-25	Denver (224.0)	Sum	N	50-60	L	0%
11-26	Florida Gulf Coast (172.0)	ASun	A	75-51	L	0%
12-3	Notre Dame (70.0)	ACC	A	71-53	L	0%
12-9	Fordham (290.0)	A10	A	76-68	L	0%
12-12	Army (280.0)	Pat	H	64-76	L	0%
12-23	Saint Peter's (251.0)	MAAC	A	71-68	L	0%
12-29	Sacred Heart (321.0)	NEC	A	68-73	W	100%
12-31	Wagner (109.0)	NEC	H	82-75	W	100%
1-4	Robert Morris (196.0)	NEC	A	80-79	L	0%
1-6	St. Francis PA (178.0)	NEC	A	91-87	L	0%
1-11	Central Connecticut (263.0)	NEC	H	77-60	W	100%
1-13	Sacred Heart (321.0)	NEC	H	52-92	L	0%
1-18	Mount St. Mary's (225.0)	NEC	H	81-73	W	100%
1-20	Bryant (341.0)	NEC	H	85-80	W	100%
1-25	Fairleigh Dickinson (254.0)	NEC	A	70-76	W	100%
1-27	Mount St. Mary's (225.0)	NEC	A	86-72	L	0%
2-1	Bryant (341.0)	NEC	A	69-73	W	100%
2-3	Wagner (109.0)	NEC	A	79-61	L	0%
2-8	Robert Morris (196.0)	NEC	H	77-65	W	100%
2-10	St. Francis PA (178.0)	NEC	H	65-90	L	0%
2-15	LIU Brooklyn (232.0)	NEC	H	84-79	W	100%
2-17	Fairleigh Dickinson (254.0)	NEC	H	87-74	W	100%
2-22	LIU Brooklyn (232.0)	NEC	A	81-76	L	0%
2-24	Central Connecticut (263.0)	NEC	A	78-75	L	0%
2-28	LIU Brooklyn (232.0)	NEC	A	73-50	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

St. Francis NY's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

St. Francis NY's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against St. Francis NY.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
St. Francis NY	NEC	26.43	26.43	39.13	39.13	-5.75	-5.75
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	6.29	6.29	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wagner	NEC	4.58	4.58	71.43	71.43	1.96	1.96
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	4.56	4.56	40.74	40.74	-0.85	-0.85
Robert Morris	NEC	4.55	4.55	48.39	48.39	-0.15	-0.15
Central Connecticut	NEC	4.50	4.50	43.33	43.33	-0.60	-0.60
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	4.48	4.48	53.57	53.57	0.32	0.32
Bryant	NEC	4.47	4.47	10.34	10.34	-3.54	-3.54
St. Francis PA	NEC	4.45	4.45	53.85	53.85	0.34	0.34
Sacred Heart	NEC	4.43	4.43	28.57	28.57	-1.90	-1.90
Saint Peter's	MAAC	1.95	1.95	41.94	41.94	-0.31	-0.31
Brown	Ivy	1.91	1.91	40.00	40.00	-0.38	-0.38
Navy	Pat	1.90	1.90	60.00	60.00	0.38	0.38
Fordham	A10	1.88	1.88	26.67	26.67	-0.88	-0.88
Duquesne	A10	1.83	1.83	48.39	48.39	-0.06	-0.06
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	1.78	1.78	63.33	63.33	0.48	0.48
Notre Dame	ACC	1.78	1.78	56.25	56.25	0.22	0.22
Army	Pat	1.78	1.78	39.29	39.29	-0.38	-0.38
Denver	Sum	1.78	1.78	44.44	44.44	-0.20	-0.20
Manhattan	MAAC	1.78	1.78	43.33	43.33	-0.24	-0.24
Hartford	AE	0.38	0.38	58.06	58.06	0.06	0.06
American	Pat	0.29	0.29	20.00	20.00	-0.17	-0.17
Holy Cross	Pat	0.29	0.29	38.71	38.71	-0.06	-0.06
NJIT	ASun	0.28	0.28	42.86	42.86	-0.04	-0.04
UMass Lowell	AE	0.28	0.28	37.93	37.93	-0.07	-0.07
Rider	MAAC	0.25	0.25	70.97	70.97	0.10	0.10
Siena	MAAC	0.25	0.25	25.00	25.00	-0.12	-0.12
Lehigh	Pat	0.23	0.23	51.72	51.72	0.01	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.22	0.22	60.61	60.61	0.05	0.05
Fairfield	MAAC	0.22	0.22	51.52	51.52	0.01	0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.21	0.21	23.08	23.08	-0.11	-0.11
Loyola MD	Pat	0.20	0.20	26.67	26.67	-0.09	-0.09
Marist	MAAC	0.20	0.20	19.35	19.35	-0.12	-0.12
Niagara	MAAC	0.20	0.20	59.38	59.38	0.04	0.04
Lafayette	Pat	0.20	0.20	30.00	30.00	-0.08	-0.08
Rutgers	B10	0.20	0.20	42.42	42.42	-0.03	-0.03
Stony Brook	AE	0.17	0.17	38.71	38.71	-0.04	-0.04
Seton Hall	BE	0.17	0.17	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Binghamton	AE	0.17	0.17	31.03	31.03	-0.06	-0.06
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.16	0.16	25.00	25.00	-0.08	-0.08
Boston College	ACC	0.16	0.16	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.16	0.16	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Louisville	ACC	0.14	0.14	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.14	0.14	36.36	36.36	-0.04	-0.04
North Florida	ASun	0.14	0.14	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.14	0.14	15.62	15.62	-0.10	-0.10
Dayton	A10	0.14	0.14	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Maine	AE	0.14	0.14	13.33	13.33	-0.10	-0.10
Monmouth	MAAC	0.14	0.14	35.48	35.48	-0.04	-0.04
Canisius	MAAC	0.13	0.13	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Princeton	Ivy	0.13	0.13	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Columbia	Ivy	0.12	0.12	26.92	26.92	-0.06	-0.06
Harvard	Ivy	0.12	0.12	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Yale	Ivy	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.12	0.12	28.57	28.57	-0.05	-0.05
Northwestern	B10	0.12	0.12	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.12	0.12	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
Boston University	Pat	0.12	0.12	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.12	0.12	73.53	73.53	0.05	0.05
Colgate	Pat	0.12	0.12	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
USC Upstate	ASun	0.11	0.11	10.71	10.71	-0.09	-0.09
Duke	ACC	0.11	0.11	78.79	78.79	0.07	0.07
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
St. John's	BE	0.11	0.11	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.11	0.11	68.97	68.97	0.04	0.04
George Washington	A10	0.11	0.11	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.11	0.11	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	Amer	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Penn	Ivy	0.09	0.09	74.19	74.19	0.05	0.05
Cornell	Ivy	0.09	0.09	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
South Dakota	Sum	0.09	0.09	73.33	73.33	0.04	0.04
Providence	BE	0.09	0.09	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.09	0.09	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Davidson	A10	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Stetson	ASun	0.08	0.08	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
VCU	A10	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Richmond	A10	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Louis	A10	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.08	0.08	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Longwood	BSth	0.06	0.06	13.33	13.33	-0.05	-0.05
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.06	0.06	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.04	0.04
Western Illinois	Sum	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland	B10	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.06	0.06	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Marquette	BE	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Albany	AE	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Memphis	Amer	0.06	0.06	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.06	0.06	76.67	76.67	0.03	0.03
New Hampshire	AE	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
George Mason	A10	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.05	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Wichita St.	Amer	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	32.35	32.35	-0.02	-0.02
East Carolina	Amer	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
San Diego	WCC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Montana St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
San Jose St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	10.34	10.34	-0.02	-0.02
Stanford	P12	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
UC Irvine	BW	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Wyoming	MWC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
UMBC	AE	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
FIU	CUSA	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	24.24	24.24	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Missouri St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Towson	CAA	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Tulsa	Amer	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
UMKC	WAC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
UT Arlington	SB	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
Elon	CAA	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
South Alabama	SB	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
VMI	SC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Chicago St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	3.33	3.33	-0.02	-0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
LSU	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	87.88	87.88	0.02	0.02
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Syracuse	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.03	0.03	93.94	93.94	0.02	0.02